use crate::data::Candle; use serde::Serialize; #[derive(Serialize)] pub struct Cross { pub index: usize, /// "golden" (K crosses above D) or "death" (K crosses below D) pub kind: &'static str, /// true when the cross happens in the extreme zone (<20 golden, >80 death) pub strong: bool, } #[derive(Serialize)] pub struct Divergence { /// "bullish" or "bearish" pub kind: &'static str, /// "regular" (reversal signal) or "hidden" (trend-continuation signal) pub class: &'static str, /// "RSI" or "K" pub indicator: &'static str, /// bars of the two price swings pub i1: usize, pub i2: usize, /// price at the swings (swing low's Low / swing high's High) pub p1: f64, pub p2: f64, /// bars where the indicator has its extreme near each swing pub j1: usize, pub j2: usize, /// bar at which the second swing was confirmed (earliest the signal was knowable) pub confirmed: usize, } pub fn crosses(k: &[Option], d: &[Option]) -> Vec { let mut out = Vec::new(); for i in 1..k.len() { if let (Some(k0), Some(d0), Some(k1), Some(d1)) = (k[i - 1], d[i - 1], k[i], d[i]) { if k0 <= d0 && k1 > d1 { out.push(Cross { index: i, kind: "golden", strong: k1 < 20.0 }); } else if k0 >= d0 && k1 < d1 { out.push(Cross { index: i, kind: "death", strong: k1 > 80.0 }); } } } out } #[derive(Debug, Clone, Copy, PartialEq)] pub struct Swing { pub index: usize, pub is_high: bool, pub price: f64, /// bar where price had reversed by `pct` from the extreme pub confirmed_at: usize, } /// ZigZag swings: a swing high (low) is confirmed once price falls (rises) by at /// least `pct` percent from the running extreme. The last, unconfirmed extreme is dropped. pub fn zigzag(candles: &[Candle], pct: f64) -> Vec { let f = pct / 100.0; let mut out = Vec::new(); if candles.is_empty() { return out; } // Some(true): tracking a high (rising); Some(false): tracking a low; None: undecided. let mut dir: Option = None; let mut hi = (0, candles[0].high); let mut lo = (0, candles[0].low); for (i, c) in candles.iter().enumerate().skip(1) { match dir { None => { if c.high > hi.1 { hi = (i, c.high); } if c.low < lo.1 { lo = (i, c.low); } if c.low <= hi.1 * (1.0 - f) && hi.0 < i { out.push(Swing { index: hi.0, is_high: true, price: hi.1, confirmed_at: i }); dir = Some(false); lo = (i, c.low); } else if c.high >= lo.1 * (1.0 + f) && lo.0 < i { out.push(Swing { index: lo.0, is_high: false, price: lo.1, confirmed_at: i }); dir = Some(true); hi = (i, c.high); } } Some(true) => { if c.high > hi.1 { hi = (i, c.high); } else if c.low <= hi.1 * (1.0 - f) { out.push(Swing { index: hi.0, is_high: true, price: hi.1, confirmed_at: i }); dir = Some(false); lo = (i, c.low); } } Some(false) => { if c.low < lo.1 { lo = (i, c.low); } else if c.high >= lo.1 * (1.0 + f) { out.push(Swing { index: lo.0, is_high: false, price: lo.1, confirmed_at: i }); dir = Some(true); hi = (i, c.high); } } } } out } /// Indicator extreme (min for lows, max for highs) within +-`slack` bars of `idx`. fn indicator_extreme(ind: &[Option], idx: usize, is_high: bool, slack: usize) -> Option<(usize, f64)> { let lo = idx.saturating_sub(slack); let hi = (idx + slack).min(ind.len() - 1); (lo..=hi).filter_map(|j| ind[j].map(|v| (j, v))).reduce(|a, b| { if (b.1 > a.1) == is_high && b.1 != a.1 { b } else { a } }) } /// Divergences between price swings and an indicator, using consecutive swings of the /// same kind (low->low, high->high): /// regular bullish: price lower low, indicator higher low (reversal up) /// regular bearish: price higher high, indicator lower high (reversal down) /// hidden bullish: price higher low, indicator lower low (uptrend continues) /// hidden bearish: price lower high, indicator higher high (downtrend continues) pub fn divergences( swings: &[Swing], ind: &[Option], name: &'static str, ) -> Vec { let mut out = Vec::new(); for is_high in [false, true] { let same: Vec<&Swing> = swings.iter().filter(|s| s.is_high == is_high).collect(); for w in same.windows(2) { let (a, b) = (w[0], w[1]); let (Some((ja, ia)), Some((jb, ib))) = ( indicator_extreme(ind, a.index, is_high, 2), indicator_extreme(ind, b.index, is_high, 2), ) else { continue }; let (price_up, ind_up) = (b.price > a.price, ib > ia); if price_up == ind_up || b.price == a.price || ib == ia { continue; } // lows: price down & ind up is regular; highs: price up & ind down is regular. let regular = if is_high { price_up } else { !price_up }; out.push(Divergence { kind: if is_high { "bearish" } else { "bullish" }, class: if regular { "regular" } else { "hidden" }, indicator: name, i1: a.index, i2: b.index, p1: a.price, p2: b.price, j1: ja, j2: jb, confirmed: b.confirmed_at, }); } } out.sort_by_key(|d| d.confirmed); out } /// Rough forward-return summary per (class, kind, indicator): count, then for each /// horizon the mean close-to-close return after the confirmation bar and the share of /// signals that moved in the signal's direction. pub fn forward_stats(candles: &[Candle], divs: &[Divergence], horizons: &[usize]) -> String { use std::collections::BTreeMap; let mut groups: BTreeMap<(&str, &str, &str), Vec<&Divergence>> = BTreeMap::new(); for d in divs { groups.entry((d.class, d.kind, d.indicator)).or_default().push(d); } let mut out = String::new(); for ((class, kind, ind), ds) in groups { out += &format!("{class:8} {kind:8} {ind:4} n={:<3}", ds.len()); for &h in horizons { let rets: Vec = ds .iter() .filter(|d| d.confirmed + h < candles.len()) .map(|d| { let r = candles[d.confirmed + h].close / candles[d.confirmed].close - 1.0; if kind == "bullish" { r } else { -r } // positive = moved the signalled way }) .collect(); if rets.is_empty() { out += &format!(" +{h}d: n/a"); } else { let mean = rets.iter().sum::() / rets.len() as f64 * 100.0; let win = rets.iter().filter(|&&r| r > 0.0).count() as f64 / rets.len() as f64 * 100.0; out += &format!(" +{h}d: {mean:+.2}% win {win:.0}% (n={})", rets.len()); } } out.push('\n'); } out } #[cfg(test)] mod tests { use super::*; fn flat(closes: &[f64]) -> Vec { closes .iter() .map(|&c| Candle { date: "2024-01-01".into(), open: c, high: c, low: c, close: c, volume: 1.0 }) .collect() } const PRICES: [f64; 9] = [100.0, 95.0, 90.0, 95.0, 100.0, 97.0, 95.0, 100.0, 105.0]; #[test] fn zigzag_finds_confirmed_swings() { let sw = zigzag(&flat(&PRICES), 5.0); let lows: Vec<_> = sw.iter().filter(|s| !s.is_high).map(|s| (s.index, s.confirmed_at)).collect(); assert_eq!(lows, vec![(2, 3), (6, 7)]); assert!(sw.iter().any(|s| s.is_high && s.index == 4)); } #[test] fn hidden_bullish_not_regular() { // price: lows 90 then 95 (higher low); indicator lows 30 then 20 (lower low) let sw = zigzag(&flat(&PRICES), 5.0); let mut ind = vec![Some(50.0); PRICES.len()]; ind[2] = Some(30.0); ind[6] = Some(20.0); let d = divergences(&sw, &ind, "RSI"); assert_eq!(d.len(), 1); assert_eq!((d[0].class, d[0].kind, d[0].i1, d[0].i2), ("hidden", "bullish", 2, 6)); } #[test] fn regular_bullish() { // price: lower low needs 90 then 85 let p = [100.0, 95.0, 90.0, 95.0, 100.0, 95.0, 85.0, 90.0, 95.0]; let sw = zigzag(&flat(&p), 5.0); let mut ind = vec![Some(50.0); p.len()]; ind[2] = Some(20.0); ind[6] = Some(30.0); let d = divergences(&sw, &ind, "K"); assert_eq!(d.len(), 1); assert_eq!((d[0].class, d[0].kind), ("regular", "bullish")); } #[test] fn hidden_bearish() { // price highs 100 then 95 (lower high); indicator highs 60 then 80 (higher high) let p = [90.0, 95.0, 100.0, 95.0, 90.0, 92.0, 95.0, 90.0, 85.0]; let sw = zigzag(&flat(&p), 5.0); let mut ind = vec![Some(50.0); p.len()]; ind[2] = Some(60.0); ind[6] = Some(80.0); let d = divergences(&sw, &ind, "RSI"); assert_eq!(d.len(), 1); assert_eq!((d[0].class, d[0].kind), ("hidden", "bearish")); } }